DONALD'S FATE:  We always caution that polls are snapshots in time.  However, when a number of polls and surveys start coming together, it may well signal an important change or trend.

For former President Trump, the trends have not been good.  It does appear that his own party is turning against him, and his most enthusiastic supporters are exhibiting an unusual silence.  From USA Today:

Republican support for Donald Trump's presidential bid in 2024 has cratered, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, as the former president is beleaguered by midterm losses and courtroom setbacks.

By 2-1, GOP and GOP-leaning voters now say they want Trump's policies but a different standard-bearer to carry them. While 31% want the former president to run, 61% prefer some other Republican nominee who would continue the policies Trump has pursued.

They have a name in mind: Two-thirds of Republicans and those inclined to vote Republican want Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president. By double digits, 56% to 33%, they prefer DeSantis over Trump. 

"Republicans and conservative independents increasingly want Trumpism without Trump," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

The findings are a red flag for Trump, whose core support has held remarkably solid through firestorms over his personal behavior, his provocative rhetoric, and his most controversial actions in the White House. But he has become increasingly embattled over his role in fueling the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol, his alleged mishandling of sensitive documents when he left the White House, and investigations into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

COMMENT:  The phrase "Trumpism without Trump" is the key here.  Republicans generally like Trump's policies, and surveys show that a majority of Americans like them too.  Statistically, the country was much stronger under Trump.

But Trump is also widely seen as obnoxious, egotistical, mean-spirited and crude.  Other than that, he's a nice guy.  But he seems to have passed the tolerance point with the American people.  They see him as an obstacle to GOP victory in 2024, not an asset.  They want Trumpism without Trump, and they like what they see in Ron DeSantis. 

Can Trump bounce back?  I doubt it.  Remember, he's a known quantity.  He's already been president.  What will he do, announce a "new Trump," just as we had the "new Nixon" in the 1960s?  Will he kiss babies, shed an occasional tear, talk about his mother?  Will he ask Mitch McConnell for a date?

DeSantis is a brilliant politician.  He knows his moves, and Trump may well have met his match.

But, of course, we don't predict here.

December 13, 2022